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2.35%

41.5¢ opthea limited

Ann: Security Class Reinstatement to Quotation- OPTOB, page-113

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willxue123

436 Posts.

34

08/08/24

20:25

Post #: 75132253
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Originally posted by FreeFromStyle: ↑

For the graph I posted, considering a $100K investment in OPTOB at $0.12 with a 50% chance of success, we should expect a risk-adjusted value of $276K, or basically $176K of " expected profit," according to the Black-Scholes model.

That is BS, however, this outcome is unlikely in the real world. Its going to be zero or near zero (failure of P3 trail) or $400k plus , not much in-between. If the Phase 3 trial is successful and OPT rises to $1.50 per share, the $100K investment in OPTOB would be worth at most $416K based on the intrinsic value of the options. Nobody is going to pay 33% more for the options unless there is a very strong belief that OPT will continue rising above $1.50 until the final exercise date (30 June 2026).

Probably enough graphs now, as better to actually try to analyze the real-world medical data and actual chance of P2b being replicated in P3.

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So if the OPT sp @$2.2, the profit for each OPTOB would be $1.08 (currently, the OPTOB sp @$0.12), right? But at that time, no one would probably want to sell it.

OPT Price at posting: 41.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 41.5¢		Change -0.010(2.35%)		Mkt cap ! $510.9M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
42.5¢	43.3¢	41.5¢	$595.3K	1.419M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	68572	41.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
42.5¢	24717	3

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	68572	0.415
7	91389	0.410
2	40906	0.405
15	235322	0.400
2	10031	0.395

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.425	24717	3
0.430	16906	1
0.435	34457	2
0.440	24441	2
0.445	10000	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 08/08/2024 (20 minute delay)

OPT (ASX) Chart