There is a video on YouTube by MST Access covering Opthea. It’s...

There is a video on YouTube by MST Access covering Opthea. It’s important to note that MST Access is a pay-for-coverage service, meaning that the coverage was paid for by Opthea, so the presentation isn’t likely to highlight potential issues. Nevertheless, I find the presentation valuable as it provides a good overview of the company and its prospects.



My fundamental investment thesis is that Opthea could reach a valuation of around US$3B (AUD$5B) if its Phase 3 trials are successful.
Estimates vary widely, with some analysts predicting as low as US$1.5B and others as high as US$6B; however, I believe $3B is a reasonable middle ground. Also I plan to take my capital off the table (risk-off) if I see strong speculation next year leading up to P3 readout.

Considering the strong statistical significance observed in the Phase 2b trial involving 366 participants, there is a high likelihood that these results will be replicated in the SHORE trial, which involves 900 participants. The second readout of the trails SHORE trial closely mirrors the successful Phase 2b study but with an important difference: it excludes the difficult-to-treat RAP cohort from the analysis. This exclusion is expected to increase the chances of success, as RAP is known to be a challenging cohort to treat effectively, potentially leading to more consistent positive outcomes.While first readout COAST, which uses aflibercept in combination with sozinibercept, is also likely to succeed, SHORE is seen as having a stronger statistical foundation due to its design and patient selection criteria. Pity it is arse-about as it would be good to have near certain a win upfront then speculates on a second win, however this is not what we will get.

Obviously there is no such thing as a sure thing - and in particular this is the USA- FDA so there is a political risk (Trump is no friend of the FDA and may defund) as well as a scientific one.

.