Mid April 2025 will be when the probability wave collapses for all of us. Until then, any predictions are just speculation.
We just have to manage our risk tolerance and gauge the likelihood of Phase 3 results replicating the promising outcomes from Phase 2b, particularly with the efficacy endpoint. From a statistical standpoint, comparisons between the Phase 2b results and the masked data from Phase 3, especially given the large sample size, strongly suggest that we should see the results replicated and/or improved.
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If Phase 3 is successful, we obviously will see significant gainz... but wait there is more - potential bonuses or extra returns.
A successful outcome in Phase 3 would also pave the way for advancing into DME Phase 3 trials and the co-formulation with VEGF-A treatments. As I understand it, Opthea’s treatment currently requires a second injection and 30 minutes wait to allow stabilization eye pressure, since the fluid of multiple injections can increase pressure in the aqueous humor of the eye. Co-formulation, I expect, could reduce this to just one injection, making sozinibercept ubiquitous in the treatment of nAMD—a market valued at USD $15 billion per year.
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Paul Rennie, MD & Founder
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