Well, 2027 is a way off. The big hurdle first is obviously Phase 3 (P3); once the drug is approved, it becomes a massive profit machine.Nothing about your posting but my little rant. The lefties who rightfully claim drugs are too expensive shouldn't be directing their anger towards small medical companies trying to prove and commercialize new treatments but should focus on reducing the complexity and costs of the approval process. It just shouldn't cost $200 million to run a standardized double-blind P3 trial.Absolutely, in hindsight, I should have guessed when OPT at $0.65 declined to the mid-50s before $0.485 and the trading halt, that the cat was out of the bag for the capital raise rather than a partnership. Obviously, it makes sense in hindsight. Like all retail, I was very grumpy, but apart from complaining to ASIC about insider trading, the only financial remedy, given I believe in the science, pragmatically was to buy the CR and OPT below 35.
Bell Potter’s $3.20 share price is nice to see, and I agree. However, they have adjusted this by a 30% chance of successful trials and getting to market, which I believe, obviously as I am a holder with a buy rating, is underestimating the chances. It is very likely that the P2b results will be replicated in P3 given the numbers. However, this just means that the efficacy of approval will need to be weighed up by the FDA. If Trump wins, a nutter will be put in charge of the FDA, and then all bets are off.
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