Your calculations are very nearly bang on with what I get, using the figures of a 60/40 success/failure probability, with $2 for success and $0.05 for failure (options expiring worthless in the failure scenario).
My calculations show an expected value today, for a 4-month wait, of $1.17 for the stock and $0.58 for the options.
Anyway, it's out of our control now—it will be what it will be. Obviously, I’m not the next Warren Buffett, so salt grain take.
Should anyone like to see it, I can plot some more graphs with Python (boredom alert)
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