I am heavily into the options. The price they sell for can be different to the price you're prepared to pay, which of course is sensitive to how high you think the share price will go before the exercise date. If you think it's only going to go to $1, then it's pretty marginal. But if you think it's going to go to higher like $2 or $4, then obviously the options at the current price are the best deal. And in the reasonably unlikely event of phase 3 failure (never say never), the downside for the shares is maybe 90% which is not so different from 100% for the options, so the risk isn't really that much bigger. If anyone doubts my estimate of a $10B market cap for Opthea after clinical trial success, look at what Novartis paid for The Medicines company (US$9.7B) in 2019 for a cholesterol-lowering drug, which is only projected (hoped) to have sales of $2.7B by 2027. Novartis ( Outside US) and Genentech (US) had combined 2023 sales of ranibizumab (Lucentis, the drug co-administered in Shore) of US$1.6B. Bayer (outside US) and Regeneron (US) had combined 2023 sales of afilbercept (Eylea, the drug co-administered in Coast) of US$9B. If Novartis/Genentech acquired the rights to sozinibercept, annual sales would rocket by at least $3B at the expense of the decimation of Eylea sales, so they would clearly be prepared to pay US$10B (=AU$16B) to buy Opthea. Likewise, Bayer/Regeneron would pay the same to defend their leadership. BTW I incorrectly cited Pfizer as the owner of Elea in an earlier post - misremembered. Or Roche might make a bid for fear that their new drug Vabysmo will suffer. Or a biosimilar company might make a bid. Opthea will have many suitors, or could choose to sell into the market themselves. It really is a unique opportunity as it is the only drug that improves efficacy substantially in a very big market, co-administered with any of the current VEGF drugs, with no one behind them for years. I wouldn't be surprised to see a takeover bid pretty quickly. At AU$10 per share it would be a steal. Really good new drugs that are well ahead of the competition are rare things nowadays and the big drug companies pay a lot to get them from the biotechs. My 97 year old father has macular degeneration in both eyes and Eylea only stoppped the decline without improving vision, there is a lot of need for increased efficacy.
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Last
61.0¢ |
Change
0.075(14.0%) |
Mkt cap ! $750.9M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
55.0¢ | 61.0¢ | 54.0¢ | $3.300M | 5.637M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 13666 | 60.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
61.0¢ | 47448 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 13666 | 0.600 |
1 | 19192 | 0.595 |
5 | 57613 | 0.590 |
1 | 27442 | 0.585 |
2 | 32442 | 0.580 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.610 | 47448 | 2 |
0.615 | 16045 | 3 |
0.620 | 161716 | 5 |
0.625 | 32931 | 1 |
0.630 | 139739 | 4 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 09/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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