Ann: Security Purchase Plan, page-2

  1. g41
    408 Posts.
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    Macquarie:
    ALSAbove-avg fct earnings growth vs mkt & peersKey Points• After a period of research restrictions, we have OP rating & $18.20 TP.We fct 12% EPS CAGR over next 3 yrs, compares favourably to mkt &peers.• $350m capital-raise to fund four organic lab capacity expansions($230m) & bal sheet capacity to support future bolt-on growthinitiatives ($120m).• ALQ provides FY26 building blocks incl 5-7% org rev growth guidance vs4.9% in FY25. Pf gearing reduces to 1.7x from 2.3x post cap raise.• ALQ's organic growth investment should better enable delivery of its5-7% LT organic rev growth target. It is a reflection of strong demand (eg,8.4% organic rev CAGR in Enviro last 3 yrs), allows it to invest "ahead ofthe curve" and expand share in key markets.• Environmental continues to be a strong performer within L/S with10% organic FY25 rev growth via price discipline, mkt share gains andregulatory driven demand growth (incl PFAS). ALQ expects 20-40bpop margin improvement for L/S in FY26 and this appears conservativecompared to +62bp delivered in FY25.• Recent acquisitions are delivering at or better than expectations whichdrove L/S FY25 earnings beat. Further margin improvement from acqnsis likely in FY26 incl Nuvisan with cost-out 6 months ahead of schedule.• Minerals sample flows have maintained 4Q momentum into April &so far in May (vols running +6-7% on pcp). This is driven by the majors &mid-tiers (75% of ALQ customer base) without any material benefit fromjuniors (latter 25% of rev). Any potential pick-up from the juniors wouldbe additive to current recovery and at higher margins.• 2H25 Minerals price/mix was down c4%. Adverse price is likely tocontinue in 1H26 (flow through of 2H25) before potential 2H26 recoveryas current pricing has improved reflecting stronger demand (timing ofback book vs front book). We note that pricing is pro-cyclical and tendsto follow volume with a lag. We fct 60bp/120bp of Commodities EBITmargin expansion in FY26/FY27.Earnings changes: No material changes (FY26/27e EPS +0.1%/0.4%).Valuation: $18.20 TP based on DCF and global peer PE avg ($17.30 prior).Catalysts: End of July AGM/Perth analyst tour. Exploration activity & juniorcapital raisings progression in 2H.Investment Thesis and RecommendationOP. We fct 14%/12% EPS growth in FY26e/27e; this compares well tobroader mkt (7% EPS growth All Co's ex banks FY26e). ALQ has above-avg EPS growth vs global peers at 12% 3yr CAGR vs 8% TIC peer avg(FY26-29e). ALQ trades at 5% prem to global peers, but has done so inprior minerals upcycles
 
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(20min delay)
Last
$18.07
Change
-0.050(0.28%)
Mkt cap ! $9.165B
Open High Low Value Volume
$18.10 $18.13 $17.88 $14.88M 825.4K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
2 1253 $18.00
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
$18.11 1253 2
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Last trade - 16.11pm 25/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ?
ALQ (ASX) Chart
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