I'd expect ME to lock in the extension while he is currently in Senegal, and this will be announced very soon. All sides would have known this was the scenario if Shell rejected, so Senegal gov't would have given this subject much consideration before FAR officially requested the extension. I can't see the CSEM having any influential effect as it's non-conclusive.
Then its back to square one and searching for a partner.
CSEM is vague and will probably remain that way until it has a drill result to reference against. It could then be a bonus after the first drill, to help determine further targets. So it should have a bit of added value to an incoming JV.
The next JV will have to be willing to drill (and FAR may have to contribute financially), no more free peeks before deciding. It was worth taking the chance once with Shell, but now it's time to drag in the rig, pray and drill.
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