I've chosen to ignore the 1mmboe from Cooper for the same reasons ID has ignored it.
The presentation which SXY produced shows a production target of 3mmboe in FY22. Given SXY's history of not achieving deadlines, I am assuming the 3mmboe referenced is a stretch.
As to the possible reasons why ID has ignored the possible 1mmboe from guidance:
- In FY19, SXY has actual guidance of 1mmboe from Cooper (in line with production from prior years)
- However, to maintain this production SXY has had to drill new wells at a capital cost of $40M.
- So to maintainenance capex appears to be around $40M to maintain the 1mmboe of production - without it oil the rate of production from oil wells declines.
SXY are choosing to invest their money in Atlas and WSGP (renamed to Roma North following the teething issues). They area investing $150M in these projects, the value of the financing facility.
So if they want to maintain production at 1mmboe at Cooper, where are they going to fund the $40M cost of drilling - capital raising?
ID has chosen to ignore the reference to the 1mmboe as it SXY are not planning to invest in Cooper for now, And the rate of production will decline by FY22 and he has therefore wisely decided not to include a target production.
So think 4mmboe is possible if you want - why not think 40mmboe.
But if you choose to follow the production target that SXY has referenced in the presentation - it is 3mmboe in FY22.
Given SXYs affinity to run into teething issues and delays, my guess is 3mmboe in FY22 will be a stretch
