Ann: Sensera completes A$2.5m private placement, page-173

I think the biggest weakness in the production cost model I posted yesterday is the assumption of Sensera's margin remaining at 57%.

The basic wafer cost from the Lawes model has a high level of certainty - here is an independent estimate from a 2021 source:

The US$1000 figure for a medium-complexity mem from a 200mm wafer foundry producing a reasonable volume of 10000 wafers per year - CMOS will be cheaper, but our 150mm wafer has a higher production cost, so the $1100 estimate looks pretty solid.

But let's change the thinking, and look at this from Nanodx's perspective. Nanodx will want two things from the manufactoring agreement with Sensera (which is in place, but we are yet to see):

• They will want to screw down Sensera's margin as much as possible
• They will want a fixed price per chip to push all risk back to the Foundry

Looking then at what could be a more realistic senario, let's say that Sensera's margin is pushed back to 30%. This results in the folloiwng outcomes, keeping all other parameters the same as yesterday:

• Cost per chip from direct manufacture by Sensera is now $3.02, with a gross profit per chip of $0.90
• Cost per chip from indirect manufacture by a foundry like Skywater is $2.02 from yesterday, with Skywater collecting it's 20% margin as gross profit.
• Sensera can guarantee a fixed price Nanodx ($3.02), and still take the $1 per chip royalty from the Skywater production.

This is why I think the licencing will be the key for us - the gross profit from the licence could actually be higher than that from direct manufacture ($1 vs $0.90) because Sensera's production costs are higher.

Maybe I'm dreaming, but in the above senario:

• Nanodx is happy with a low fixed price of $3, with guarranteed large volume
  
• Skywater is happy with their standard 20% margin on large volume production
• Sensera is happy with a $1 clip on large volume production from licencing their know-how IP.
• And most importantly, Sensera shareholders are popping the corks