Well KB, on the surface I understand your confusion. But lets keep it simple, and stick to the most important metrics firstly, and what we know with the highest level of proof secondly, before worrying about lesser metrics which rely on guesswork to understand.
We make Chocolates containing toys. We sell them to retailers who sell them to public and then order more stock. We are thus depend directly on our sales to retailers, which in turn depend on their retail sales to the public.
What we do know for certain, spelt out in black and white in the quarterly is that:
- Strongest quarterly sales recorded since launch
Another fact spelt out in black and white is:
In this quarter an estimated USD $4.8 million of
retail sales value was achieved which is more than double the previous quarter
Also, compared with previous quarter:
receipts almost doubled (using 1.4 as approx FX rate ~960k vs. ~1.8 mil)
The quarterly also tells us directly that sales have continued to grow in the original 1500 stores - proving the durability and consistent allure of Yowie - as well as in the newer stores where it is still a novelty. We are also informed that the quarterly doesn't reflect the full Walmart rollout yet (which we realised) but that even by the end of September 15% of Walmart was yet to be stocked. We should therefore see even better sales figures next quarter from Walmart alone even if no further tier 1's are added.
Now, your concerns relate to you not understanding the insider details as to how Yowie run their manufacturing. On the surface there are only slightly higher working capital requirements this quarter and less direct purchase of raw materials and manufacturing cost. This bothers you. But WE DONT UNDERSTAND the complex details and logistics of Yowie's manufacturing processes. Just as some random possibility, it may be that the toy is an expensive component and not perishable; so they bought large quantities reflected in last quarter and haven't purchased more yet (why not? who knows the stock levels? Perhaps they'll pay for more tomorrow and be reflected in next quarterly? Who could know? who cares???)... maybe this quarterly's raw materials didn't need manufacturing, perhaps they were just the cheaper more perishable ingredients? There are many other permutations and explanations. The point is that we don't know the inside details, but they don't matter when you know in black and white that sales and revenue are growing solidly. Management have demonstrated their ability to land major contracts like Walmart and Safeway, and to deliver on those contracts reliably and competently - so leave the operational details of running their manufacturing to them. You can't know how the business works on that level unless you work in it.
Ultimately thats the bottom line: sales are undeniably growing exponentially and so are receipts (despite their lag from Walmart account). If your interpretation and assumptions regarding working capital and raw material purchases don't compute to the sales figures presented in black and white, then it is your assumptions and maths that "don't add up".
Relax and stop looking for ghosts; enjoy the clearly growing business you are invested in
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(20min delay)