I'll give it a go as I'm the one who commented most on the lack of forex hedging. Let's use the following assumptions from the recent qtrly report:
- BRL is required in the course of gold production, not sale.
- AISC AUD1,276 multiplied by avg 0.79 to convert to USD (ref. Bloomberg markets)
- USDBRL rate avg 3.15 (ref. Bloomberg markets)
- Au production 28,764oz
- BDR budgeted USDBRL rate 3.40 (previous report)
- Opportune time to hedge at USDBRL 3.25-3.30 was in Jun17 (ref. Bloomberg markets)
1. Calculation on forex overestimate in budget: 1276 x 0.79 x (3.40-3.15) x 28,764 = 7.2M approx. in this qtr.
2. Calculation on forex loss in not hedging: 1276 x 0.79 x (3.25-3.15) x 28,764 = 2.9M approx. in this qtr.
A few million in this qtr, a few million in that qtr and pretty soon we're looking at a massive impact.
Happy to have my calcs checked. Cheers, R.
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