There is just one surprise for me:Cash + gold inventories end of...

There is just one surprise for me:

Cash + gold inventories end of June: A$5.1m (annual report)

End of September: A$14.6m

So the cash position increased by A$9.5m during the quarter. Before the debt repayment.

Original debt repayment was US$6m or A$8.5m. Would have been possible with leaving not enough for exploration. So the reasons given for renegotiating the debt repayment were very correct after all. And that is the surprise, according to my guesstimate I thought paying the original US$6m would have been impossible. Not so.

With the altered debt repayment of A$4.2m the current cash + gold inventory position should be A$10.4m. Do not forget that figure should contain a base level of gold inventory needed for the production process, certainly below A$4m as the overall gold inventory end of June was below A$4m. Leaves Troy with a small cushion of A$6m.

Gold price received was US$1214/oz.

A quick estimate for the current quarter should leave Troy with at least 17500 ounces due to lower grade. This is assuming no Smarts 3 production for the December quarter (while there was in September until the slip) and no stockpiles from Smarts 3 used. Price received should be US$1230 vs US$1214, hedges for the current quarter (hedges above market price). So A$2.1 less in revenue. On top of that A$1.5m for exploration.

My guesstimate for the December quarter cashflow: A$9.5m - A$2.1m - A$1.5m = A$5.9m

Cash + gold inventories end of December: A$16.3m

Debt repayment due end of December: US$4.2m or A$5.9m

Cash + gold inventories end of December: A$10.4m

No problem to pay the debt, no capital raise needed. If operational performance continues in 2019, the Investec debt will be repaid after Q1 and trade debt will be reduced to A$10m. All while spending $1.5m for exploration quarterly.

Now that a capital raise is not needed, Troy can and should do one once the share price is somewhat more reflective of inherent value. Especially after early to mid 2019 when the debt has vanished the share price will be much higher. Time to speed up exploration then and grow the pie. If Troy really has a world-class deposit, development could be too costly to be financed via operational cashflow. Until then we will have new exploration results and know a lot more. Extra 10% placement facility could be very valuable to speed things up then, so it makes sense to set the course for 2019 now. Are you going to vote for it too?