Hey mate,
I got that number from going through all past acquisitions where Apollo has had control of a shell (3 or more Apollo Directors come together on board).
Exact figures;
MRU: 120days
CPL: 15days
EQX: 61days
PLL: 149days for first acquisition which failed, 215days for second acquisition which multibagged.
SO4: 64days (Although this was a completion of Acq.)
With that being said we are statistically beyond average, but due to market lethargy I don't expect anything this year. Most deal makers across the board seem gun shy in this market, the ones that I've noticed have pulled trigger on news and have done okay last couple months have had good assets and confident to bet against general headwinds. Apollo have the pedigree to do that too, but I reckon they'll spend this time compiling a shortlist of quality stuff and wait for momentum to show and pull the trigger.
Fingers crossed by Q2 2019 we'll see what has been cooked up.
I like the fact they are reviewing few high grade DRC Cobalt projects and not leaving any region untouched.
Reason being Glencore is in some serious heat right now with their two largest cobalt assets. Full article here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-11-16/glencore-s-misadventure-in-the-congo-threatens-its-cobalt-dreams.
Cliff notes; Glencore got their deals for their two largest cobalt assets through a lucrative deal with Dan Gertler (who is best mates with the president). Gertler has been sanctioned by U.S so no-one is allowed to deals with him. Glencore however have a royalty contract with him. So now S.E.C is pushing for Glencore to stop paying royalty. Now if they stop paying royalty they lose Gertler, they lose gertler they lose their two largest assets in Congo. If they continue paying, SEC can try sanction them from selling their cobalt.
So its really a tricky ultimatum, if they do lose assets that's 40% cobalt supply at risk, and Katanga's (25% of Supply) is already closed until H2 2019, and Glencore just had their copper cobalt DRC export bans lifted the other day, likely a political flex from Gertler to show his presidential influence to Ivan Glasenberg if they decide to stop coughing up money. Could have the chance to fire things up in the sector in 2019 so best Apollo have some projects there ready.
Also could be setup like EQX.
Tony Sage (at his prime) bought Mayoko Iron Ore Project in Congo for $49M for CFE. (which got taken to $400M+ Market Cap). CFE expected a 1.3Bt resource at Mayoko, drilling was due to come Q3 2010. So in Q2 2010 EQX shell ($4M MC) grabbed the adjoining land to Mayoko.
Tony Sage also vended AKI's another Mayoko Tenure Congo project for $2M adjacent to CFE and EQX.
Apollo bought out a portion of the project AKI's project using EQX funds and within 2years of the vend completed a takeover offer for $370M+ from Exarro which took EQX to almost $500M MC from a $4M shell.
What I'm hypothesizing is it's Cobalt they're watching and likely also watching what sort of interest market shows WFE this time instead of CFE, similar players (with similar Congo acquisition strategies) involved in both what Apollo did in 2010 and what could happen in 2019.
With that being said I reckon Copper Gold would be a cracker. Especially with Woodman's experience back from Gold producer for last 2years.
They're end game is always going for the T/O or Merger. Given the consolidation and numerous bids and T/O offers I've seen in gold/copper space lately, I reckon could be the path they pursue - if the right project shows up.
Most importantly; They're not sleeping on their desk, they're not burning cash of lifestyle first class expenses and they're keeping an open mind to prepare multiples routes they can go. As you mention AC plenty craypots around
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I like the fact they are reviewing few high grade DRC Cobalt...
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