The list (Seen below) accounts for when the Apollo team takes full control over a shell (with exception of PIR).
Pearce and middlemas have been brought in to assist and direct many companies in the past (usually by patto's or argo teams) but I'm focusing on times where Apollo steps in and takes the entire shell themselves.
regarding ODY.
1. It came on market in 2005 with a vend already.
2. It made 300% in under 400days.
3. Had 2 directors from Apollo to steer ship, not the entire team working on it.
regarding EQX
They took 61days to do a deal from the Apollo team entering and went from $4.3M EV to $406M EV, that would impress anyone?
Management will focus on shells with fresh blood, not recycle vends over and over the previous shells which have had their time. The focus is on CR1...especially since it has all their friends involved. They've done what they could already on ODY and EQX in the past, likely move on to the next key play.
Once again will clear up 2 things:
1. I expect them to go overtime here maybe another 6months. Theirs no point vending when they havent been given a sector trend, and when market sentiment is weak anyways. So yes I will wait, but hopefully when they do make the shot its timed well and brings big money on the table.
2. I'm not implying this is a forever hold (at least not just yet for me). Specs max ROI generally don't last greater than 2years although this team has pulled big mergers and T/O's (>$1B) in the past when market went their way. But mega fortunes do lay in between a shell and euphoria...especially with a team like this. Simply upto the individual if they're willing to take the risk and back a team when majority of market wont.
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