This has been the only stock I've added on last 3weeks at 23.5, 24.5 and 25. Average now 25.5. Not really the market you want to average down on losers, and I wouldnt recommend it to others but its just my strategy when I see something with value. Opening up the weekly chart that volume over last three weeks is 100% retail.
Overall IPO market has been a mess lately, I think last stat I saw 75% of IPO's this year are underwater. CR1 trading 15% above IPO makes it a performer to me in this market (although I hold at a loss) lol.
MOH a recent one just highlights the IPO irrationality traded 40% below in a few sessions from float, has the Terry Streeter on board who's built 2companies >$500M MC from exploration and two producers...was at -$500K EV (Negative five hundred lol) on friday.
If this was a 2cent stock, in a decent market, with even subtle twitter promo of a deal hint easily could see $8M+ EV lol. Although I rather they hop on twitter once or after deal is secured to speak more about direction, no point bringing empty anticipation to the table for the sake of ST price relief.
Hopefully there are a few more TNO style plays in future, liquidity has been low last 3months in penny's and for 20centers that just means even worse. Much easier to traders to push a 2cent stock than 20cent. Hopefully this will have its day, if management deliver liquidity and price movement will naturally come. Tough IPO market regardless.
Few great IPO performers exceptions recently do come to mind;
KTD - milk play generating good revenue and okay with operating profit did many bags
S66 - Another milk play multibagged
ADT - underwater for a while but the drills spoke in the end
14D - Made no sense to me, $60MC IPO valuation still in R&D and trials for the tech but that even managed to pull of almost 1bag lol.
AGH - Marijuana by PAC Partners
TNO - Probably the only shell IPO I can think of where the brokers put a vend through and successfully delivered for shareholders.
SMX - Blockchain cybersecurity did almost 4bags.
CPV - Tech play
But then you have BDG, 14D, TIN, GAL, ARN, EMN, TAO, QEM, TIN (until friday), PRZ, RFR, SLZ, TMR, SGI, ID8, VN8, MOH all underwater.
Von I'd be personally surprised/impressed if they had a deal ready this quick. I feel most lead managers and DM's don't have the incentive to bring deals in this market, so most have gone quiet or just watching each other to see which LM/DM has the confidence to pull the trigger first on a deal. Whoever does pull of a deal in this market has to be confident of a top tier asset, so I can see chance of Apollo doing that.
Apollo in particular are very good on riding the trend early with some foresight, so they'll likely wait for market to give direction. And only place it has given strong direction lately is gold, vanadium (Canadian players only but most of the easy run has been made) and copper (RIO's W.A massive discovery, and Teck worlds second largest copper miner recently have a $4.8B Chile mine extension approved with Mitsubushi, Rio, Lundin, Chinalco, Freeport the largest copper miner all bidding to JV into the extension).
Anyways this is all speculation, so I don't really like moving away from numbers and facts.
The fact is this;
FRN at 1.7cents is trading at diluted $2.03M EV. They have 4 key dealmakers on the register.
CR1 at 0.235 is trading at diluted $1.6M EV. We have 3 of the 4 dealmakers (exclusion of Bahen) of FRN some holding larger amounts here in CR1. On top of that we have 40x the landholding next door. On top of that we have Apollo steering ship holding majority with their friends on register.
So objectively, CR1 is undervalued or FRN is well overvalued or we are being given a negative discount because of Apollo's involvement lol. I lean towards the prior here. Just depends on how long they'll take really and if markets can turn and appreciate what can happen here.
