Great summary Narly. Agree with it all.

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sunnyaus

4,804 Posts.

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27/10/23

12:30

Post #: 70575212
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Originally posted by Narly: ↑

I said yesterday that I didn't think the qtrly would be that bad as we knew a lot of what happened during the qtr. We knew the tonnage was down, the spod price down etc.

What I did learn from Dale's comments were things like
- you have to stop the production to install new equipment (how long did that take 2-3-4 days - a week) so production volume down - it is so obvious when you hear it but don't think about it normally.
- how they price the spod sales - I had wondered why we receive far less for our spod compared to others. Now we know - it is tied so close to the current price. I understand that now.
- the problem with the late shipments - maintenance at wharf at Port Headland (I have that right I hope - meant to double check that before writing this).
- the CMP - they thought the good (not the fantastic) spod prices would continue and they could pay a special divy or adjust the divy ratio 20-30% to maybe 30-40%. I never thought there would be a buy back. You don't do BB when the SP is falling. It is like paying $4 today and next week it is worth $3.50 so you have wasted 50c. Previously they were going to announce the new CMP during the Sept qtr - it didn't happen, so that was sending out negative signals.

I have posted before, do you want a special divy or BB and probably no regular divy this FY. OR you forget about BB and special divies and have the half year and full year divies. Once you start paying divies and then stop you look like an idiot and the market can react with a cut to the SP.

It all depends on the production and sales this qtr for the half year result/divy and similar for full year result/divy but I think we can look positively to the future. This 1st qtr was going to be the low production one and volumes to increase from here on so I hope people and analysts see that. The spod price is the elephant in the equsuation at the moment but if/when that turns then things look pretty blood good. I don't expect the divy to be lowered too much.

We had $3.3b cash end of FY2023 - you take out the $430m divy and the $773m tax and you have $2.1b left. They allocated $930m to run the place, expansion etc etc for this financial year. So you are down to $1.1b in the bank. Then you have the profit from this qtr and next qtr and the second half to add to the bank - $1b+ - so $2.1+ in the bank. So depending on money being reserved for cap expenses for FY 2025 I can see room for pretty reasonable divies. Bloody hope so. Cheers sunnyaus.

And PS - I believe the smart money (as Guppy says) is starting to take an interest in PLS. They have waited and waited (weeks even months) for the signs (charts). So it is game on I feel - the smart money v the shorts.

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Great summary Narly. Agree with it all.

PLS Price at posting: $3.91 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last $3.02		Change 0.080(2.72%)		Mkt cap ! $9.090B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$3.01	$3.04	$2.96	$59.25M	19.70M

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
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7	37866	3.000
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11	169579	2.970

Price($)	Vol.	No.
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Great summary Narly. Agree with it all.

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Great summary Narly. Agree with it all.

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