i have suspicions the current action will widen in the middle east, there are a lot of irregularities that dont add up. I strongly suspect Iran is in the cross hairs, without wanting to go into the nitty gritty .. the end result.. if things get ugly between US/Iran that could certainly get gold to break through what currently seems to be the top of a consolidation channel and trigger a short covering run.
Another thought in the middle east is Saudi Arabia dropping the petro dollar arrangement.. maybe the US wants to punish them too?
in my defence, i did say the day before the announcemnet on hedging that i hope they dont, and i strongly agree (that othres have pointed to) that in cases like this, energy should be hedged too, though there are a few potential downward pressures on oil compared to gold.. recession and venezuela potentially agreeing to sell oil to the US.. but im far more concerned about controlling our cost side than worring about spot price.
there is no major reversal signals for gold its a very premature hedge, you are probably right on the DXY rising, but gold is well able to run with the DXY and has done so many times in the last dacade or two
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i have suspicions the current action will widen in the middle...
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