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Posting generally here................Your 3 points wont move...

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Metalduster

7,765 Posts.

383

16/10/19

08:04

Post #: 40900436
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Originally posted by Rob826: ↑

I don’t agree with much you have to say, but I think you are probably correct about the upcoming quarterly. I actually don’t see the quarterly itself as being terrible, but it will probably just be more of the same which will just reinforce the negative cycle.

Where I think you’ve hit the nail on the head is the +/- 10% 200 ktpa offtake agreement/s. As I see it, GXY has only 15,000t booked so far (18 Oct - Alam Setia) for Q4. That means GXY would have to book a further 60,000t within the next ten weeks, which I think is extremely unlikely. I hope I’m wrong, but SH’s comments about bookings and “meeting the market on price” did not fill me with confidence.

I suspect that the Q3 results may contain a downward revision of full year guidance, which will likely see us beaten down further. Again I hope that this isn’t the case, but I’ve come to err on the side of pessimism regarding GXY in the short term.

That being said, there is a heap of event risk to the upside, so I wouldn’t risk shorting this stock at these levels. There appears to be minimal further profit to be made, and positive news could drop any day. Some news that I’m closely awaiting:

1. Revised SDV flowsheet - due Q4
2. Acquisition of A40 assets - finalisation and selection of proposed DOCA by 05 Dec 19.
3. Potential investment in downstream processing via JV for Chinese converter (discussed by BoD but no timeline yet).

Any of these events being announced in the short term (next 3 months) is likely to result in significant share price movement.

One last point, I recall not that long ago you openly stated that your fair value was around $1.80 (we were still in the two’s at that point). Funny how you never foresaw the continued downturn either, so you’re no more accurate than the rest of us. So while you raise some relevant points, I’ll continue to take your comments with a grain of salt.

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Posting generally here................
Your 3 points wont move the share price into an uptrend if the overall price of Lithium remains low.

You may get spikes in the share price then a return to the downtrend.

a lot of the stuffing has been taken out of the GXY shareprice and its appearing to be getting close (only "close") to empty atm awaiting some move up in demand for Lithium. When does that eventuate 6-9-12 mths? Not sooner and definately not in this year. imo

So picking the bottom or the turnaround in share price atm is a guess.

The Sector needs new money coming in and atm the sector has fleas all over it.

When the times right the smart money enters and until then just let it all unfold before your eyes!

Counteracting the downrampers at times is a fruitless exercise while a stock is in a downtrend. When it turns the downrampers diminish and the uprampers have their day in the sun and so it goes.

A thread has been started in the Humour Forum and if anyone reads it you'll notice the Upramps far exceed the Downramps in "the most over used statements on Hot Copper" .....imo

Going on the quotes, In reality, who looks the silliest .....the upramper or the downramper. Food for thought?

We all want a turnaround in the shareprice but it wont come out of thin air.

I'm no genius and I am averaging down to some degree atm but in hindsight I have made a fundamental mistake in holding 70% of my original stake in GXY following the run up . Thems the breaks.

I wont finish with "good luck" as I think that was quoted over in that Humour Thread!. lol

Md

GXY Price at posting: 93.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
12 Upvote

2 Great analysis

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