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$3.69 azure minerals limited

Ann: September Quarterly Activities and Cash Flow Report, page-14

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The Stripester

832 Posts.

65

01/11/23

11:12

Post #: 70662433
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Originally posted by calmbeforestorm: ↑

Some rambling thoughts below.

I think it is very unlikely SQM will get to 50.1% since about 65% is already tied up between Gina, SQM, Creasy and Germans and maybe more than 65% is tied up as some others may have been buying under the radar - SQM need 30% of the available 35% of AZS shares to reach 50.1% unless the Germans sell and then they need 30% of the 46% but 46% may not actually be available due to other holders not wanting to sell into the price on offer

So my conclusion is SQM is quite unlikely to achieve 50.1% or control of AZS. Even if it does AZS will still be listed so does it really matter if they achieve 50.1% or a higher or lower shareholding.

Stalemate and AZS will continue to be listed with a very tight register - potentially more than 85% in top 20 holders.

Downside risk in short term is:

. SQM abandons bid and AZS falls back a lot with no takeover premium in SP - could fall below $2. However, I still feel there will be a takeover premium in SP especially with potentially 85% in top 20 and SQM hungry for AZS - this is the LTR scenario
- soft lithium prices, lots of shorts on lithium stocks leading to lithium bubble bursting in lithium explorers (including AZS) - there is currently a huge bubble in lithium stocks especially explorers and it will eventually burst with lots of investors losing a lot of money.
- poor assay results - based on Tony’s last interview that is not going to be the case for TA1 and who knows about TA3 except it does look promising just like TA1 did at the same stage.

-Upside risk -
- in AZS SP is probably very limited if any in short term. Need lots more great assay results to justify $3.50 in absence of a takeover.
- will there be a higher bid from SQM - quite unlikely with current major holdings making it difficult for any holder to gain 50% or take AZS over even at a higher price.

The-really big money has l ready been made in AZS already

Wether to sell or hold at $3.50 comes down to whether one wants to sell with a guaranteed big profit with the potential opportunity to buy back in at a lower price in next few months and maybe longer or whether one wants to hold and wait for a really big return once the full potential of Andover is revealed over the next 5-10 years.

There is no right or wrong decision. I do not believe the decision is easy and is very different to LTR since AZS has clearly much more potential upside than LTR. If it turns into a PLS size resource the long term potential is very rosy indeed. The decision will also depend on how much of one’s portfolio is in AZS - the higher the weight the greater the risk.

If one sells where does one reinvest - ie is the opportunity to stay invested in AZS better or worse than the opportunities available elsewhere over the medium to long term (and not just lithium and most likely not lithium stocks). From my perspective gold is looking very interesting especially developers and recent producers ( already have a lot in gold stocks)

Sorry about my waffling.

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I thought it was a great Waffle myself…..Pretty much what I was thinking myself, hence why I have held tight. I just thought there was more upside to the $3.50 and a difference to the LTR deal….It seemed AZS board and SQM learnt from the LTR deal. It was certainly a difficult decision to hold as “bird in the hand” etc etc…..as for the Re-invest my thoughts were with GRE down the road who have increased their rock chip strike length to 11km…..Patience required now…..Very Very interesting times ahead that’s for sure.

AZS Price at posting: $3.60 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
7 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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