AKE current enterprise value = 4.8 billion AUD AKE annualised net profit (from this quarter, neglecting all future growth and sale price increases) = 1.3 billion AUD
AKE growth plan NPV (discounted) = 30 billion AUD (seemingly fully funded to production?)
Livent's annualised net profit (using this quarter) = 500 million AUD. With a much more modest growth profile planned (and no idea of the planned project financials as either they are not reported or I can't find them).
I just can't believe this merger is fair at the proposed ratio. The market on both sides I think agrees. It seems impossible for AKE to rise under the uncertainty of the merger succeeding at the prescribed ratio, when you just buy Livent at discount prices. Livent won't rise under the uncertainty the merger fails. Until the merger outcome this is going to be painful I think although at what value can AKE just not be overlooked regardless, I don't know!!