I would 100% accept a lower cost, but I am trying to not be too optimistic.
Finally found that thread with my estimates.
The company I compared it to was Magnetite Mines, not Hawsons (but I did a very detailed thread on AKO VS Hawsons).
The key calculations I had are below, and my 2022 comments in red
Mining Equipment
I think BSE's initial plant will cost about the same as ours, but we may need some extra stuff because we are dealing with ore which are no doubt rougher on equipment than mineral sands. - I think our plant costs will be similar to Base, I am not going into their details again, but I would imagine we wouldn't have just one of each machine, we would need a few machines, that run at the same time and will keep the mine moving when we need to maintenance.
I have added 50% contingency.
BSE: $39m - including Heavy mobile equipment (HME) and a dry mining unit (DMU) - page 25 MGT: $270 - $327m (includes plant) AKO - $40m - $60m - machines are expensive, buy maybe I was a bit excessive here? Could be $20m - $30m??
Process Plants Our plant should be pretty simple with just crushing and screening for the first 2 - 10 years as a DSO operation.
BSE: $110m - page 27 MGT: $270 - $327m (includes Mining equipment) AKO - $10m - $20m - Again, maybe a bit excessive here? Could be $5m - $10m??
Mining and Processing Plant Note: - Base has a total of $150m - Magnetite Mines has a total of ~$300m - AKO has a total of ~$70m (my "best guess" estimate) - Revised total of $25m - $40m. Could it be lower?? - MGT needs to process a lot more ore than AKO as the grade is lower, therefore they need a much larger plant and power requirements - MGT need to include grinding where AKO will likely get away with 2 phases of crushing and screening for the DSO phase Tailings Storage MGT: $38m AKO: $0m (for the DSO phase anyways)
Infrastructure (Camp, Roads, Bridge etc) This one is a bit of a wild card... As I see it we need all of the things BSE need, and the only way I can see it being any less is because we will have a smaller workforce, but it won't be a linear reduction of head count to cost.
BSE: $86m MGT: $80m AKO: $50m - I would imagine I have been way to excessive here, but I would imagine we would need to do a bit of work irrespective of how good the roads are. Could be $10m - $20m???
Owners Costs
I don't see how we can get around this one, the costs seem reasonable, but AKO will have a smaller scale
BSE: $66m MGT: ?? (no doubt wrapped up in the $270m for mining and plant costs) AKO: $40m (30% discount? It's smaller than BSE, but more remote) - NO IDEA WHAT THIS IS???
Port / Storage / ExportBSE: $82m MGT: $7m AKO: $30m(literally no idea, but let's assume if we use the port at Toliara we will need to upgrade at least some infrastructure) - Once again, I think I have been excessive here. If we go the barge route, it could be significantly lower than building full port faciliteies. Could be $5m - $20m??
Estimated Cost to go Mining High level estimate total so far = ~$200m - Low ball = $40m and high level = $80m + 20% contingency Tota = $240m - $50m - $100m (or there abouts)
Both BSE and MGT are well north of $500m, which means AKO will be about 50% cheaper than the others to go mining.
If we use a base price of $55/t at a cost to mine of $10/t, we should make $40/t on DSO ore.
At 2mt per year that equates to about $110m profit.
This means payback would be about 2 years.
What else have I missed?
If you want the detailed thread with all of the breakdown, please check it out at:
(20min delay)