Ann: Settlement of Ferroglobe claim, page-142

Anyways, it is not and never has been "flip of the coin". That is 50/50, even money - lose your stake or win your stake. Real simples

It is risk/reward. At worst lose all your stake, at best win (perhaps many) multiples of it. It is an incremental probability continuum, with each increment being assigned a probability with the only restriction being that the sum of all incremental probabilities must be one (unity).

[e.g. sellout price: <2c; 2c-5c; 5c-10c; 10c-20c; 20c-50c; 50c-$1; $1-$2; $2-$5; > $5
9 increments - assign a probability to each
(remember - must add up to 1)
Plug in some scenarios.
Take mid-point of each increment and calculate profit/loss if sold at that price.
View total risk/reward profile of your estimations.
With foresight from here, is it a good bet. Hindsight (when available) will give the answer.]