TAM 0.00% 3.9¢ tanami gold nl

My understanding that the project is a 100-150koz p.a project,...

  1. 1,107 Posts.
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    My understanding that the project is a 100-150koz p.a project, with the split being 60/40.

    So TAM's position will be 50-75koz p.a

    If the cost to get it out of the ground is say AU$1100, and today's gold price is $1750, that is a margin of $650 per ounce, which leaves TAM with $32m - $49m p.a.

    If the price of gold increase to $2000 (AU not US) which doesnt seem to be that unrealistic, the margin will be $900 per ounce, which would leave TAM with $45m - $68m p.a

    Whether we get that far though, I am not so confident.

    NST's current market cap is $2.7B whilst TAM is $100m. So based on Market Cap, NST is 27 times larger.

    They are cashflow positive already have $326 Million in the bank.

    For a company that size, that is looking to increase its gold production, why would they want TAM hanging off them, taking 40%. If they are looking to increase their gold production, the most logical thing would be to acquire the remaining 40%.

    Now as I see it, this leaves NST with 3 possible options:

    A) Let TAM hold onto the remaining 40% of the project
    B) Make a Takeover bid sooner rather than later
    C) Make a Takeover bid once in production

    Now to me, option A doesnt make sense. So this leave us with B and C.

    By now, NST should be confident with the projects prospects. They have had enough time to look at the reserves first hand, and to fully understand what is involved in getting the mine into production. Now if everything is looking positive, and the price of gold is sitting at profitable levels, and looking as if it is going to go higher by 2018, there should be a lot more certainty about the project now.

    So as the project gets closer to completion, and as the price of gold goes up. So does TAM's share price, and the expectations of shareholders.

    Now the problem for NST is their $360m and what to do with it. It doesnt make sense to leave it all in the bank, earning a lousy 3%. Sure, you could pay it out to shareholders through dividends, but that is not really benefiting the company. They shouldnt really need it for cashflow, because they are already producing gold at good margins. So they need to invest it somewhere, so why not make a play for the remaining 40%?

    Now the current share price is 8.5c, and by the time the mine finally gets into production, I am expecting the SP to be around the 50c mark, all things being equal. So everyday between now and then, the SP is going to get gradually closer.

    With the uncertainty of the MLX court case hanging over TAM now gone, this has removed even more uncertainty for NST.

    I'm putting my head on the chopping block here, but I honestly believe that NST will make a Takeover Offer before the end of the year, and it will be in the vicinity of 20c a share, which will equate to about $200 Million.

    As for the $3 Million settlement, it is a bit bitter sweet. TAM would have been favourites to win the case in court, and could have possibly even have recouped some of their legal costs. But at the same time, they have saved themselves and extra 2 months, and if everything goes to plan, the $3 Million settlement should look like Chicken Feed.
 
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4.2¢ 201913 2
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