What, falling knife haha. Wouldn't say screaming buy on account of commodity price risk, but I agree it looks like a possible washout setting up for support. Also seems to be a classic "sell the rumour, buy the fact' situation. Share price weakness has warned of commissioning delays and ramp up issues for some time, July 10 release reads like a confession. Only after newly installed dust suppression in the MSP in June turned things around somewhat, perhaps providing the confidence to finally admit problems were more protracted (ie only confess once you're confident on progress)
July 10 Production rates continued to be constrained during the month, due primarily to low availability of the Dozer Mining Units and mining plant and equipment. These availability issues are being managed with the respective contracting partners with plans in place to resolve. June 6 Mining operations and mineral processing at the Wet Concentrate Plant occurred every day in May, though mining throughput and production was constrained at times due to commissioning-related issues, including equipment failures and plant availability.
Volumes are right up July 10 onwards with red candles every day except today if it closes 24c. Seems a few funds or others were not too pleased to receive the confession and decided to unload on risk aversion or sending a not-happy message, and fair enough. Plenty on HC were also in denial commissioning wasn;t going to plan until recently, such was the tone of updates this year. I just looked at Morgans Buy rec from 2 months ago, clearly they weren't expecting more delays, quite the opposite even thinking first MSP product sales last quarter lol.
So, commissioning has gone off-track across the board (mining units, mining plant, equipment, MSP dust) and finished product sale therefore delayed. Between a long period of selling the rumour and now some spanking on the fact, I'm thinking it can only get better from here because none of those equipment issues should be un-fixable. It's a high tonnage operation true, but it's good size sand and very low slimes. Lot of plant built before inflation really took off, quality products selling into Europe and USA (no China risk). Never a huge fan of the project, but at a low enough price I'll take the chance buying value.
CR at 20.5c Mar 2021 to fund FID was made at discount to 24c, having walked back from 28c days earlier. 20.5c is the next support on that basis 18c on the chart if I get technical. If Regal are in the stock then it may well go a lot lower, nasty buggers, but I'm a value-trap sucker. Taken a position, big enough that it's not just for the right to post comments on this thread lol.
GLTAH
STA Price at posting:
24.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)