It is a bit further "out there" than speculation IMO. To get a loan from NAIF, a company first needs to go through NAIF's due diligence process. As far as I am aware SFG is not currently in that stage, so at best SFG might advance to the due diligence phase but are they actively pursuing that? I haven't heard anything from SFG to indicate that it is on-going.
BTW, I looked at a few NAIF case studies and came up with some surprising results. Firstly they have lent money to Humpty Doo Barramundi (31M in 2 stages) for the same end use as PSD requires (hatchery, ponds etc) but since they are a family owned business I am unable to find the end effect on the company. I also looked at 2 mining companies which received NAIF funding. Both are developing projects which are "company makers" not entirely dissimilar to SFG. Here are some associated numbers
Company ASX code NAIF Loan Date announced Prior day close price Close on Day of Loan Highest close High close date Current Price 1 Strandline Resources Ltd STA 150M 22/06/2020 0.2067 0.25 0.2644 26/06/2020 0.19 2 Sheffield Resources Ltd SFX 95M 19/09/2018 1.02 1.035 1.21 10/10/2018 0.325
So, for these companies, a NAIF loan has hardly been a rocket for their share price. My call is that the existing options will expire worthless in a couple of weeks independent of whether there is any debt funding (NAIF or otherwise, and we know it wont be NAIF funding in this timeframe) announced.
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