My only comment is that your "best case" production is more like my base case. Company's own projections target 50K+ per annum (by end 2014). It will really depend on grade which thus far looks extremely promising and prospective. Talang Santo is shaping up as a phenomenal ore body.
The discount required due to Sovereign Risk (and there are plenty of worse sovereign risks) is offset in part by the premium inherent in being in the lowest decile of Gold Producers.
My only comment is that your "best case" production is more like...
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