So looking at the timeline listed - closing date for SPP is 24 December, SPP results aren't announced until 31 Dec, and issuance isn't until 6 Jan next year.
Case 1
If they announce any material news prior to 24 December, everyone is just going to jump into the SPP because the SPP discount is now much higher. Share price shouldn't in theory move too far from 14.6c unless the news is so game changing it generates overwhelming demand. Should be lots of churn post announcement but may end up growth aligned shareholders at the expense of shorter term holders
Case 2
If they announce material news between 24 Dec and 31 Dec, people will have to buy in not knowing how much of their SPP allocation they will actually get, so either they won't buy, or some will and then there will be a dip when those who bought and also got an SPP allocation sell down their accidental overexposure. Share price should increase with volatility, but may or may not touch 14.6c depending on the quality of the news. Risk is volume and attention is low during the Xmas to NYE period, and the announcement fails to move the stock. Announcement now risks not creating positive momentum
Case 3
If they announce material news after 31 Dec, they will not have been on track to release news on contracts (as they previously suggested) and there will be a sell-off, which could be material. Given the price movement to date (and the SPP looming), potentially a smaller group of short term speculators currently in the stock, so sell-off should be limited to medium to long term holders who have given up on management. When the news does come, potentially limited upside as management will have to rebuild trust in their ability to set goals, communicate accurately, and execute.
Case 4
There is no announcement.
Not sure how much this helps anyone but unless I'm wrong, anything less than Case 1 would be detrimental to say the least. No idea where management is at with their talks, but they have an intense 3 weeks ahead of them I think.
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