Hi Vmk Research
Thanks for your reply.
There is a truism about HotCopper... beware the poster who only posts on one stock. Clearly you have a conviction LVT is an excellent stock. You write confidently and assert your views articulately. What makes you so sure?
The arguments you offer me in your post suggest you have some contact with the company which the ordinary retail SH [like me] does not have. You say things like...
"These teams with a bulging pipeline have increasingly focused on the larger opportunities."... "The average customer size has risen steadily quarter by quarter"... on what basis are you claiming this... supposition or knowledge of the facts?
I spent a bit of time going through older posts and I can see some quality on the threads... if somewhat emotionally involved. Tech stocks are populated by a completely different kind of personality compared to the commodity stocks. Mining stocks and such companies are chock full of liars, scammers and BS artists... thankfully the drill is the independent arbiter. Tech stocks are populated by sincerely deluded individuals frequently immersed in their own self image... nice enough as people but...
So... now that I, perhaps, have thoroughly insulted you.
The company is stating average ARR is ~$45k.. factor in 10% churn I still cannot arrive at $140k for new customers as an average... unless you ascribe that churn to LVT losing only the largest of customers, in which case there is a big problem with the offering.
Another problem with your analysis is... if you are correct about $140k then that, most likely, is the result of the internal marketing/sales team... which might mean the external partnerships are largely unproductive [unless they are landing whales]. If so that is a worry.
The handy spreadsheet offered by
@Magwheels5 listing the numbers of customers added each quarter is showing only linear growth. It is obvious the company has topped out in its current capacity to expand and why the CR is probably needed and possibly well timed. The question revolves around how large is the unaddressed pipeline and how well qualified are the prospects... if it is simply a matter of requiring a larger sales team then the average year on year growth might be maintained.
At this stage of things, in my personal assessment, I like the business case for LVT. The founders have the right background [the experience on the tech side] and they have opted to align the offering with Microsoft which is no bad thing. With large outgoings $50M, although it sounds a lot, can get swallowed up pretty quickly.
(20min delay)