To follow up, some details below on why I believe that each$100m of ARR for LVT will be worth $2 per share to the share price. The WANAAXstocks:
WTC Market Cap. $10.81b FY19 Revenue $348m MC/R multiple = 31.1times
ALU Market Cap. $4.41b FY19 Revenue $172m MC/R multiple =25.6 times
NEA Market Cap. $1.13b FY19 Revenue $78m MC/R multiple = 14.5times
APT Market Cap. $9.09b FY19 Revenue $264m MC/R multiple =34.4 times
APX Market Cap. $2.56b FY19 Revenue $520m MC/R multiple = 4.9times
XRO Market Cap. $9.18b FY19 Revenue $553m MC/R multiple =16.6 times
The above numbers relate to FY19 however APX’s financialyear is the calendar year hence it is a forecast (UBS’) so makes APX look a bitcheaper than the others for whom the numbers were the actual FY19 numbers. Ithink it’s fair to exclude APT and APX from the comparisons with LVT as theyare not SaaS companies like the other four. The average MC/R multiple of theother four stocks is 22 times. LVT has 803.12m shares on issue (not counting theupcoming SPP) so at a share price of $0.39 the market cap. is $313.2m. AssumingLVT achieves ARR of $100m (and treating ARR as revenue although admittedly ARRtrails revenue by about 10 months) and applying a revenue multiple of 16 times(well under the average of 22 times for the four SaaS stocks referred to above)gives a theoretical market cap. of $1.6b which equates to $1.99 per share (whichis near enough to $2 per share). This may be a bit ambitious for the first$100m of ARR (although it could also turn out to be conservative if the market reallyfalls in love with it) but it should be pretty much the bare minimum valuation-wiseonce the company gets to revenues over $200m. Based on the market opportunityof $13b and the fact that LVT is clearly the market leader and now the bestfunded after the recent capital raising, I have little doubt that the $200mfigure (which should equate to a share price of at least $4) is achievable, thequestion is how long it takes them! As I posted a few days ago, I’ve gotrevenue figures of $1b plus in mind and a share price in excess of $20 on a 10year view. Bear in mind that once they reach cash flow break even (I’m guessingat around $80m ARR) any excess cash will be reinvested and each dollar ofreinvestment should increase the ARR by $0.60 the year after, and then thisjust keeps on compounding on itself year after year. Run the numbers and you’llsee just how powerful that can be!
(20min delay)