Hi
@playwithfire, in the absence of any suitable material catalysts (e.g. spectacular drilling results coupled with a new gold discovery, or a JVA worth $15M-$20M) to drastically improve the share price in the near-mid term, I suspect your guess about a large shortfall might be correct.
CR money will be disappearing (evaporating) from ADG coffers to service Cosmo minimum expenditure obligations & based on the available expenditure records on the W.A Tenement cache website, timing of cash outflow will likely follow previous Cosmo cash outflow timing patterns...
E38/2851 : $111,000 min expd (2024) :
May
E38/3456: $35,000 min expd (2024) :
Jun
E38/2627 : $70,000min expd (2024) :
Jun-Jul
E38/2274 : $126,000min expd (2024) :
Jul-AugE38/3525 :
$39,000 min expd (2024) :
Jul-Aug
E38/2774 :
$70,000 min expd (2024) :
Aug-SepE38/3249 :
$50,000 min expd (2024) :
Aug-SepThe Brazil exploration expenditure cash outflow patterns will emerge as time progresses.
In terms of ADG's revised planned drilling at Adelong (where drilling will now be restricted to the Challenger, Caledonian & Currajong deposits), it's probably unlikely there'll be any spectacular results coming from the Challenger deposit considering that 90% of the 36,000+ metres of drilling at Adelong over the past 40 years has been on the Challenger line of reefs & the results have been unspectacular to date (inclusive of any drilling at Challenger performed by ADG over the past 4 years)....which leaves only Caledonian & Currajong to deliver any unexpected near-surface gold discovery surprises (in the context of the planned ADG open-cut pits that have stripping ratios (waste : ore) of 25:1 & 11:1).
The two things that seem almost certain about ADG's performance going forward are:
- ongoing precarious financial circumstances.
- truckloads of additional share dilution in the near-to-mid future.
- eventual Cosmo loan write-off.
- another share consolidation in the next 18-24 months where the $0.008 & $0.02 options might end up with a revised strike price of $0.08 & $0.20 (or more).
Feel free to add any further points to the above list (inclusive of any progress / developments that might arrest ADG's progressive share price freefall back to $0.001).
(20min delay)