@Grendel4 interesting comment re needing the cash to buy LLL. IMO the cheapest way to buy LLL is to buy FFX now. As I posted a while back, the pro rata amount offered to shareholders in the IPO will be tiny. If you wait for LLL to list, that will be after the updated DFS & after the FID with construction plans announced. LLL will not be cheap at that stage!
I think the big question is - will they accept over subscriptions?
The last SPP at 16c opened Sept 21st, the sp traded in the 15.5 to 16c range until Oct 8th when it hit 16.5c & continued to rise to 22c where it closed oversubscribed on Oct 21. The rise in price above 16c I believe was mainly due to the Goulamina DFS released on Oct 20th. They targeted $6m but actually raised $9.8m.
I think they would have expected the same reaction for this SPP as happened last year. People selling down to finance their SPP purchase which has the unwanted affect of pushing the sp down to the issue price. Many companies don't do SPPs for this reason - it becomes self defeating.
Notice how with the last SPP they had the Goulamina DFS released half way through. They would have known that & planned on that getting them over the line. As
@ozblue suggested, this is a big SPP, $25m far exceeds the last $6m SPP target, and the amount other similar market capped companies try to raise using a SPP. There has been no news since the SPP (nothing new in the Qtly), even had a Director selling, so I think this recent rise in the share price would be a welcome surprise to management, not necessarily expected.
As
@ozblue suggested, I still think there will be an announcement before the SPP close, that management originally hoped would get this SPP over the line.
As for over subscription acceptance, they do need more funds (hence the $50m facility), as all shareholders can participate it really negates people complaining about the dilution. Smaller holders can pick up more than the 5% dilution they'll incur, larger holders will suffer some dilution even if they fully participate. I personally think they'll accept up to say $50m - that's just a guess - who knows.
Don't think I'd be selling 50m in the hope of getting the full allocation (in case of scale back), but this is the easiest 15% you'll ever make.
