TAP (ASX) Ann: Share Purchase Plan Offer

Originally posted by UZNBUZ ↑

The Top20 provides some further clarity :-
I estimate that Risco have probably paid an average in the low thirties for their 50 mill+ shares.
Hard to see them accumulating for so long (and so recently) if they had any doubt with regard to the company's viability.
A takeover offer at 20c in the current environment would probably succeed.
They do not seem like the type of outfit who would just be gambling on the oil price - therefore they could act as a 'cornerstone investor' and provide funds as, and if necessary.

Chatchai on the other hand is likely selling (and not reporting same) and probably has his parcel at an average of high thirties. He is in a no-win position now having lost all credibility with his spill the Board proposal and outstanding debts. He shows all the characteristics of being overstretched financially and would possibly sell if Risco were to make an offer.

Bottom line IMHO is that the future of the company is in Risco's hands - there are no other significant buyers out there !
Having them on the Board is obviously a good thing and assuming they have the collateral, it seems that they have very cleverly and patiently positioned themselves for a takeover at a very cheap price.

Expand

Uznbuz
One thing I have learnt is just because a big insto or investor takes a large stake , it doenst guarantee a companies viability. Risco may indeed be positioning themselves for a TO, however they were doing most of the buying when the oil price was 50-60 not 30, so the value of the underlying TAP business is now materially lower. That 25-30 margin is the difference between 10 mill cash flow p.a. and 55-60 million. They could very much save the company but it is likely that it will be done at the expense of other shareholders. At 20% they virtually block the takeover from another predator and their negotiation power has grown immensely. What tends to happen is that the company is forced to issue shares at a much lower price , with to likes of Risco able to take up the short fall .
Let's hope they can pull a rabbit out of a hat, even selling the domestic gas business would help them survive for the next 12-18 months at least