I have developed a model that requires a bunch of assumptions, including when plants would be installed, when they are running at full capacity, EBIT margin per tonne when Stage 2 is at full capacity, plus other assumptions. I have not revisited the model lately, because my laptop started playing up. Yesterday I replaced the laptop, so I'll revisit my model, and come back on the issue.
The model requires one to pick a year (typically circa 2025 when Stage 2 is at full capacity), and select an EBIT margin that would apply then. The model allows one to easily select alternatives years, so one can iterate the calculations. One can also pick any high-end EBIT margin, and the model generates a set of seven lower margins via a factor like 80% that one can vary.
In the interim, could you, or anyone, give me some idea of FOB sales price and EBIT margin. A quick glance at the latest model I have FOB Revenue per tonne at $290, EBIT/Rev.333%, and the EBIT reduction steps at 80%. Revenue per tonne is to a degree cosmetic, its sole purpose is to derive the EBIT per tonne. The EBIT per tonne can be optimistic as the starting point, because there are seven rows of step-downs , and one may feel comfortable with a mid-range EBIT per tonne.
I am reasonably happy with the model because it allows one to easily select what-ifs, and come up with a very bullish value and a very bearish one, and a range between the two.
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