I gave up trying to get this post to use a larger font size.
I got sidetracked by my penchant for solving things, like Wordle, crossword puzzles, financial reconciliations, and in this case arcane spreadsheet logic to derive kaolin tonnage from dates when K99 plants are functional and later when they are at full capacity. I knew it was intellectual arrogance, and that the reasoning behind the model only required one to pick apt future dates, because my model requires that information. It is just as valid to key plant production (tonnes) into appropriate guesstimated, dates as it is to guesstimate plant installation and full-capacity dates.
Anyhow, I abandoned the sophistication, and simply assumed 200,000 tonnes a year capacity at 31/12/2023, 400,000 at 31/12/2024 and 600,000 at 31/12/2025. I set the following parameters: FOB per tonne = $290.0; EBIT/Rev % = 16.00%; EBIT step-down factor .90%. The step-down factor simply gives a number of step-downs at lower percentages, as you can see below. This means that one can see lower EBIT presumptions. Whatever the share value is at the base date selected is discounted back to a current value using 7%, which is also set as a parameter, as is an EBIT multiple used to derive a share value, which I set at 8. The number of shares included the two CRs plus all the options (282,821,885 + 33,888,889 + 16,280,695+ 33,333,333 + 5266700 + 167,232,813 + 27,500,000 = 566,324,315).
From those inputs that I keyed in, I get the table below. It looks fine in my wordprocessing report, but I suspect HC to clutter the posted version with crap. If you provide an email address, I'll send you the spreadsheet which is in Apache Openoffice Calc. Excell may handle reading it, but I think it would struggle in a few places that use nested “ifs”. If not, Openoffice is free, so you can download it. Minor tinkering should get it to work in Excell. It is easier for both you to see, and what I may need to explain, if you have a spreadsheet version. My expertise does not extend to venturing into the world of web servers. The column PV-est SV stands for “present value = share valuation”.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 | Column 4 | Column 5 | Column 6 | Column 7 |
|---|
| 1 | {colgroup} | | | | | | |
|---|
| 2 | {col=101x@}{/col}{col=82x@}{/col}{col=82x@}{/col}{col=81x@}{/col}{col=86x@}{/col}{col=86x@}{/col}{col=81x@}{/col} | | | | | | |
|---|
| 3 | {/colgroup} | | | | | | |
|---|
| 4 | EBIT Mult ▼ | EBIT/Rev | EBIT tonne | PV=est SV | EBITxMult | EBIT Shr $ | EBITpt $M |
|---|
| 5 | 8 | 16.00% | $46.40 | $0.3000 | $0.3933 | $0.0492 | 27840.000 |
|---|
| 6 | | 14.40% | $41.76 | $0.2700 | $0.3539 | $0.0442 | 25056.000 |
|---|
| 7 | Interest rate▼ | 12.96% | $37.58 | $0.2430 | $0.3186 | $0.0398 | 22550.400 |
|---|
| 8 | 7.00% | 11.66% | $33.83 | $0.2187 | $0.2867 | $0.0358 | 20295.360 |
|---|
| 9 | | 10.50% | $30.44 | $0.1968 | $0.2580 | $0.0323 | 18265.824 |
|---|
| 10 | Years for PV | 9.45% | $27.40 | $0.1772 | $0.2322 | $0.0290 | 16439.242 |
|---|
| 11 | 4 | 8.50% | $24.66 | $0.1594 | $0.2090 | $0.0261 | 14795.317 |
|---|
| 12 | Base Year | 7.65% | $22.19 | $0.1435 | $0.1881 | $0.0235 | 13315.786 |
|---|
| 13 | 4 | 6.89% | $19.97 | $0.1292 | $0.1693 | $0.0212 | 11984.207 |
|---|
| 14 | | 6.20% | $17.98 | $0.1162 | $0.1524 | $0.0190 | 10785.786 |
|---|
| 15 | | 5.58% | $16.18 | $0.1046 | $0.1371 | $0.0171 | 9707.208 |
|---|
| 16 | | 5.02% | $14.56 | $0.0942 | $0.1234 | $0.0154 | 8736.487 |
|---|
| 17 | | 4.52% | $13.10 | $0.0847 | $0.1111 | $0.0139 | 7862.838 |
|---|
| 18 | | 4.07% | $11.79 | $0.0763 | $0.1000 | $0.0125 | 7076.554 |
|---|
| 19 | | 3.66% | $10.61 | $0.0686 | $0.0900 | $0.0112 | 6368.899 |
|---|
