I cleaned up my model a few minutes ago, and deleted earlier versions. I paste it here to see how it pastes, because I often make changes simply to improve how they paste into HC. HC's "preview" gives a misleading picture of how a pasted spreadsheeet actualy appears when posted - hence this post.
Also, I thought that a good valuation would be to convert the 35c at option exercise date to a Present Value using the 7% that I set in my model as a parameter, which is hence easily changed to test other percentage values. How valid 7% is a moot point, but because I am using todays thinking to suggest things like FOB price per tonne, and EBIT per tonne, one should not factor for inflation, IMO, because K99 product prices will increase by inflation too, and to be simplistic, I decided to assume that all things would adjust to inflation in equal ratios.
My preferred assumption is based on .6 MTA at either 31/12/26 or 31/12/27, for which the model, as it stands today, gives share values of $0.294, and $0.256 respectively, or in loose terms somewher between 25c and 30c. Converting 35c options on 20/11/2027 to PV gives 26.6 cents (see last three rows of model). Management would not have set the 35c option price that was unrealistic, so one could simply use 26.6 cents, and set your buy price lower to give a margin of safety (MOS).
