Ann: Share Purchase Plan Results, page-12

Thought bubbles only… DYOR. Cheers Anton..

Here is a probabilistic analysis of Findi’s chances of winning each of the major Indian bank ATM tenders in 2025, based on its track record, market position, and strategic factors. I’ve included working/rationale for each probability.

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1. State Bank of India (SBI) – 10,000 ATMs (Brown Label)

Status:Awarded (Q1 2025) – Findi already won ~3,375 ATMs

Probability of Further Award:0% (already awarded)

Rationale:

•This tender has been fully awarded. Findi secured one of the largest shares (~34%) among multiple vendors.

•No further probability calculation is needed unless a re-tender or extension arises.

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2. Punjab National Bank (PNB) – 5,000 ATMs (Brown Label)

Status:Closed, under evaluation (as of May 2025)

Probability of Findi winning at least 1,500–2,000 ATMs:70%

Working:

•Strengths:

•Findi has a strong national rollout track record and financial backing post $45M raise.

•It offers both hardware (via existing partners) and managed services, ideal for Opex model.

•Piramal’s reinvestment and TSI India valuation adds credibility.

•Competitive Landscape:

•AGS is weakened (employee strikes, underperformance).

•CMS, Hitachi, and EPS are likely bidders but lack Findi’s aggressive expansion.

•Conclusion:

•Findi is likely to win a significant share, especially in high-demand regions (e.g., North India).

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3. Union Bank of India (UBI) – 3,500 ATMs (Brown Label)

Status:Partially awarded – Findi won 900 ATMs

Probability of Winning Additional ATMs (600–1,000):60%

Working:

•Findi’s Current Position: Already awarded ~26% of this tender.

•Rationale:

•It’s common in large tenders to split contracts among multiple vendors.

•If performance on initial rollout is strong (speed, uptime, compliance), UBI may expand Findi’s allocation.

•Remaining ATMs are being negotiated in Q2 2025.

•Competitive Risk: CMS and EPS are credible alternatives; PNB’s outcome may affect UBI’s preferences.

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4. Axis Bank – 3,500–4,000 ATMs (Brown Label Replacement)

Status:In process – vendor to be selected

Probability of Findi winning 2,000+ ATMs:50%

Working:

•Opportunity:

•Axis is replacing AGS due to breakdowns and strikes.

•Findi already works with SBI and UBI; it could be a natural fit for a Tier 1 private bank.

•Challenge:

•Private banks prioritize uptime and lowest cost per transaction—Findi’s edge depends on service cost.

•Axis may look to avoid over-concentration (they might choose Hitachi, CMS, or EPS).

•Unknowns:

•No public confirmation of bidders yet.

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5. Dept. of Posts / IPPB – ATM Count Not Specified (Brown Label)

Status:Open – evaluation phase

Probability of Findi securing a share (assuming 3–5 vendors selected):40%

Working:

•Pros:

•Findi has pan-India logistics and TSI India presence in rural/remote locations – aligns with IPPB’s postal reach.

•Strong experience with large public sector rollouts.

•Cons:

•EPS (already a major WLA operator) may have an edge in rural deployments.

•IPPB might lean toward India1 or Vakrangee due to their existing rural footprint.

•Unknowns:

•No ATM count disclosed, but expected to be 1,500–3,000 in initial phase.

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Summary Table

TenderATM CountFindi StatusProbability of More WinsNotes

SBI – 10,000 ATMs3,375 already wonFully awarded0%No further opportunity unless future expansion

PNB – 5,000 ATMsPendingBid submitted70%Strong likelihood of winning a major share

UBI – 3,500 ATMs900 already wonRemaining under review60%Possible expansion based on rollout performance

Axis Bank – ~3,700 ATMsUnder negotiationAwaiting selection50%Private bank may diversify away from AGS

IPPB / India Post – ~2,000 ATMs (est.)Open evaluationBid likely submitted40%Pan-India rollout favors rural-focused operators