It is a raise for 4% of MC, very small Share price would have to drop by ~12% to hit this level from 66c... I would say its highly unlikely that the SP drops to 58c upon the issue of shares. That would be the equivalent of about $77M leaving the stock, 3x the raise amount. - not impossible, if shareholders are unhappy with the decision to raise funds and their sentiment on the stock has changed. ~$25M leaving the the stock (what has been picked up in the raise) which would correspond directly to an equivalent 4% drop in SP. This could happen once the notification of share allocation comes out. People who do not understand this, could also sell in fear of the SP dropping further, however i still think a 12% drop in SP would be highly unlikely, and if it did, it would be irrational.
I think the opportunity to pick up stock at such a discount (~12% of current price), and the fact that the raise is so small (4%) its likely that this will be over subscribed. I mean, only 834 retail investors have to subscribe to the $30k limit, for the SPP to be over filled. In my experience when this happens, there is not much of a sell off, as its a firm indication of support for the stock, and people often buy on market, if their allocation is not filled, due to confirmation of support.
I am long on FFX, and with the LLL demerger coming up i have applied for the full allocation, and will be holding my shares. There may be some short term noise, but the sentiment has not changed. Looking forwards to 2022 and seeing what management can do.
