I'd expect some scale-back, based on percentage. The total amount raised in the placement raised the capital base for CSL by about 5% (give or take).
The SPP doc states (I'm paraphrasing) they'll aim to provide shares under the SPP so those who participate aren't diluted. That threshold will be exceeded if any shareholder subscribing to the SPP increases their holding by more than 5%. CSL may elect to issue more shares under the SPP ("at their discretion", so certainly not guaranteed).
Let's say someone subscribes to $5000. At $273 per share, that is 19 shares (assuming the number of shares is rounded up). For 19 shares to be under 5% of that person's current holding, that person will need to hold 20 times 19 i.e. 380 shares (which, at $273 per share on that day, means their holding is already worth $103,740). So, unless that person holds more than 380 shares, they can be scaled back without recourse (unless CSL opt to issue more shares under the SPP).
Doing the same sums for someone who subscribes for $30000 (the maximum), without scale-back they'll get 110 shares. For that to be less than 5% of their holding and not subject to scaling back, they'll already need to hold 2200 shares (worth, at $273 per share, $600,600).
From figures I saw quoted in another thread here, about 208000 shareholders of CSL hold 1000 shares or less (accounting for just under 8% of the issued capital in CSL) and another 21000 hold between 1000 and 5000 shares (accounting for a bit under 11% of issued capital). The sheer number of those shareholders means, even if only a percentage elect to participate in the SPP, means the SPP will be heavily over-subscribed and scaled back.
Historically, this tends to be the pattern when companies tack on a SPP following a institutional placement. Companies typically do the institutional placement first, because that's a much simpler way to get get the bulk of the capital they seek. The SPP then tends to be heavily over-subscribed, so heavily scaled back. And, if two shareholders subscribe to the same amount, the smaller shareholder will be scaled back more.
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