The only way I see this being negative is if our Debt holders have taken all those shares and are getting into bed with Ganfeng or another party to try and take control through having our proverbials in a vice with debt covenants and being beholden to them as our main/only reliable customer.
That is the nightmare scenario and where money and power is concerned discount nothing, if Ganfeng could screw management into the ground with controlling the life support (spodumene sales), purchase/controlling the debt, then I wouldn't put it past them...
Best case scenario is another big player is muscling in, knowing that a large volume of stage 1 off take is likely looking for a home (JRO and Lionergy shares), and the bigger pie of most of stage 2. AJM is a very tasty proposition for anyone genuinely looking to lock down long term supply especially if we hit DFS costs per tonne and they'd probably prefer not to have to pay market rate for the spodumene...
If we assume $600 USD tonne for life of mine (very unlikely with future supply squeeze) and 26 years at 220ktpa (likely underestimate of total ore body), that equates to far in excess of $3.4 billion worth of spod, probably available for a long way under $1 billion AUD/$700 million USD (possibly a long way below), if they bully the company around sufficiently... Even discounting costs of extraction, debt and running mine it's just too much of a bargain to hang around at these prices.
Us little fish will just be swept along for the ride and hopefully not too royally screwed (here's hoping management are aligned sufficiently with us and able to resist the games afoot, if there are any...). I'd like to stay aboard until mine maturity and jump in Spodumene prices, but can't see this being an independent company into 2025 when the real fireworks will start...
AJM Price at posting:
11.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
