"Sorry but neither company will be successful if AGL's core generation business will not be commercially viable in future."
Did you not read the part where I said it is going to keep generating cash till it shuts down the plants and uses the intervening time to build up new assets? It's going to have to build up new assets regardless of the demerger, Nothing has changed. Let's suppose the demerger does not go through. It still has to build new assets, it still has to wind up the coal plants but the whole of AGL won't have access to the capital markets because it still has coal plants. Why not break it up so both can do it's own thing? Did you just disagree for the sake of disagreeing?
"AGL will simply be the distribution arm of Accel. If customers are moving to an alternative green supplier, how can they have any remaining business with AGL?"
Are you not aware AGL is only contractually bound to source 15-20% of the energy from AXL and only for the first couple of years? They are free to source the remaining parts from other generators or themselves and after the contract ends, they are free to source 100% of the energy from anyone.
Even if they continue to source 15-20% from AXL, they can offer customer green energy not from AXL or carbon-offset energy. Are you not versed in the offerings of other energy providers? Do you wish for the newly-split AGL to fail? I personally am excited for what the new crew at AGL can do.
"Or if indeed decentralised energy supply is the future, ie 90% of people having access to solar, I doubt there be any need for a separate distribution arm. There will simply be nothing to sell when there is no demand for the stuff they are selling."
Are you suggesting 90% of Australians will live in landed properties with a roof to install solar panels? Is Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane which the majority of Australians live in not apartments and high rise buildings? Not everyone will have a roof, just like not everyone will have a garage to charge their electric cars. How do businesses residing in skyscrapers get access to electricity? Must every mum and pop shop install their own solar panels? Shopping Centres? Old folk's homes? Hospitals? Mobile mortgage specialists? As long as there are people living in apartments or business congregating in the CBD, there will always be a need for centralized energy generation and therefore a distribution arm.
Don't go full retard into the decentralization hype man. Nuances exists. I can't believe you used "no demand for the stuff they are selling"
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