I see the Hf story as a real conundrum... With world production...

I see the Hf story as a real conundrum... With world production at estimated 60t and DZP having probably nameplate production of 20tpa, the likely revenue level is impossible to predict IMHO. Common sense says adding 3-4x supply would dramatically reduce the price from USD800/kg. On the other hand all presentations state DZP CoP for all materials is $7-8/kg (per recent presentation which includes HF circuit).

As part of the rationale of Hf production is value adding Zr, the implication is that essentially Hf is going to be spat out regardless.

Then the other side of the equation is the potential increase in demand presuming a lower cost, the discussion of all of the potential applications that may blossom. (doing some background reading, the jet nozzles of the Apollo landers were a 90/10 alloy of Nb/Hf.... almost could have been forged at Dubbo !!!)

I think one would have to factor in a minimum of a 50% drop in price with the surge in supply without commensurate increase in demand (my "wet thumb in the air" guess, economic boffins might know better). But given all materials (inc REE) have gone through 100-400% changes over the last few years, NOBODY knows with certainty.

Bottom line though is that margins for ALK make money even with substantial falls, and Zr is worth more pure. As Parmenides points out, these elements along with TGP Au are all NOT related to the REE output of the project, and not subject to quite the same speculative variability....

As mtm alludes to though, IF one (or more) of the majors looking at technologies dependant on Hf is also concerned about price predictability, locking in DZP Hf output, for say $400/kg long term...... They can develop applications with a fixed cost (at least for the Hf part), and ALK locks in revenue (which is a bonus to the original DFS). Though if you look at the project %'s and make the assumption Hf price will fall, it is a nice bonus but still not going to dominate the revenue..

If supply eventually moves to a deficit with increased usage, prices would rise maybe above the off-take price.... Do they simply put part of the refined Hf 'into the bottom drawer' so to speak as a hedge??