Maurice was at his usual best today, actually a bit different from the last preso, a lot more off the cuff talking rather than guiding through the presentation. My interesting points were as follows:
Magnolia
- Magnolia WILL be a 8mtpa project off the bat, not a 4 now + 4 later arrangement, it will all be done at once.
- $2.50 minimum ebtia from tolling
- Expects 60% ownership of magnolia
- Values magnolia alone as worth 5Billion once running
- Expects 10x multiplier in the US, rising to 15x as a MLP structure
- First 2mtpa tolling agreement within a month, 2nd 2mtpa by June.
- All 8mpta BTAs by end of year
- Will draw down 800mil from stonepeak now for all 4 trains
- First 4mtpa BTAs are targeting European market
Bear Head
- Will not talk publicly about gas supply for Bear Head until September. Says it is very political and talking publicly would make it harder to deal with the multiple parties.
- Does not see gas supply as a problem, just needs time to work through the delicate process.
Fishermans landing
- Had a meeting last night with very good outcomes.
- 6 months away but can now see a path to getting gas and is happy they extended the lease
3rd NA Project
- Will announce 3rd NA project around july once BTAs, EPC and SER have been achieved
- "Project is in a country that takes forever to get permits"
- Has been looking at this project since Jan 13 but waited it out patiently for the time to be right.
- He listed 12 qualities the board looks for in a project e.g. permits in place, gas supply ect, i cant remember them all, but a lot of them sounded difficult to achieve, this new project met 11 of the 12 criteria.
Thats it for my notes, I stuck around at the end and put a few questions to him. First was that FERC seems like just a process, he says BTAs basically there, EPC nearly done, where does he see the risk that it wont go ahead?
He replied that they just need to get the boxes ticked by June to keep the tollers happy and not risk them walking away to look elsewhere. By the sounds of it one toller is hounding for a 2018 date and aslong as that doesnt slip, there is very little risk left. I put it to him that the other toller would still sign within a month and he agreed that a 2mtpa BTA gives the project the green light.
I also put it to him that Bear Head has progressed though regulations ahead of magnolia, but there seems a large gap between the regulations getting wrapped up and further progress.He replied that its going to take a while to get the gas all worked out and that is what theyll be working through for a large part of the year.
I asked how he intended to fund BH and he replied with the IPO of the US listing.
Thats about all I can remember for now
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