Although there is no doubting (in my mind) the potential of AVH,...

Although there is no doubting (in my mind) the potential of AVH, this shareholder update was not encouraging for a number of reasons:

* FDA approval is taking longer than expected. With only 75% enrolled, what chance do they have of actually completing by end CY2012 and getting approval by mid 2013...?
* Sales are "only" up 88% on Recell, which by itself if a great sounding number, but in $ terms it's only around $500,000. That's pretty darn small given the transitional medicine this is supposed to represent.
* China, large market, still has to set pricing, so commercial sales still a while off.
* Operating loss was $5.2m, meaning costs are increasing dramatically, as they also pointed out, but with revenue at around $5.2m and losses of $5m then overheads are running at around $10.2m, which is a lot for the current scale. Guess you have to gear-up to get the growth, but they could run out of cash a lot sooner than one would hope, unless they see even more significant increase in sales. Note: I calculate they'll need around 100% year-on-year for the next two years or they run out of cash in 2014. It could be tighter than some think.
* The numbers look good, but when putting them through a spreadsheet it wasn't easy to correlate the $ and % figures. I get the feeling there's a fair bit of 'generalisation' going on with these accounts. Hard to know, but makes me a little uncomfortable.

All in all, as much as I don't want it to be so I get the feeling this could take quite some time to take off and I don't think we're out of the woods yet. Still, long-term... happy days !!??