Hi All
imho this update confirms CVN's strategic plan for the next 18 months. That is, imho the update confirms CVN will sell all or part of phoenix post successful PS and/or Doraldo to raise the necessary capital to drive (and maintain the vast majority of) Buffalo through to hooking up to "low cost floating production system."
Critically, this pathway imho is very clear comms, as per the update's comment re "maximum equity possible" that another CR will not occur/be required for quite some time.
CVN imho is keen to prove up Phoenix resource and divest Phoenix (wholly (imho CVN's preference) or majority thereof) so as to have the necessary deep pockets to progress/take the lead to drive Buffalo through to commericalisation by no later than late 2020 (or potentially by late 2019 - best case) as well as having the necessary spare funds to progress CVN's other significant prospects (e.g. Labyrinth, Condor, Eagle, and Outrim).
Hartleys has Phoenix mid-scale sensitivity analysis being valued at $160m (which imho is conservative) - which, at time of writing, just happens to be circa CVN's current MC.
Gosh, if PS3 and/or Doraldo come in and CVN can extract a good sale price for the Phoenix asset it will be very interesting to see where CVN's SP is come "Christmas in December 2018" (assuming oil price and macro market conditions remain constant).
If PS3 and/or Doraldo come in the biggest immediate risk to CVN SH value imho will be predatory action, hence, I think CVN management's plan is to mitigate this risk by divesting Phoenix second half of 2018.
Cheers
Adl
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