you sold out and then tell the world MLX is probably worth...

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18/12/19

15:50

Post #: 42033139
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Originally posted by Bandalup2 ↑

So $45m cash at end of November minus net one-off CM costs of circa $25m. Debt of $35m (first $2.5m or so payment due this month). Probably at circa $15m-$20m cash at end of December. Loan covenants may require more than that, especially given they are running on a net cash outflow basis now.

Downgraded Renison cash flow probably circa $13m-$15m p.a. (maybe lower if those closure costs start to hit).

Versus Nifty CM costs of $16.8m per annum (if you're lucky) plus annual loan repayments (first quarterly payment is due December) of approximately $10m, plus ongoing rehab and corporate costs of circa $2-3m if you're lucky. So in total probably net $2.5-$3.5m cash outflow per quarter once things stabilise.

This is going lower. They are bleeding money before even taking into account the loan repayments and have zero flexibility re: any sale process for Nifty. Confirmed cap raising imminent - players will push the price lower to get a derisked entry to the raise.

Citi loan is not secured against Renison.

Not sure who would buy Nifty.

Best course of action for MLX, given complete lack of trust in mgt, is (in my opinion) - sell their 50% in Renison (likely distressed sale price circa $150-200m), retire debt ($35m), go through a proper sale process for Nifty, return capital to shareholders (circa $100-150m), keep $10-20m cash on hand for whatever comes next. Current market cap $60m so a $100-150m return of capital would be a good outcome. Loads of volatility in the short term though as banks, activist shareholders, JV partners all circling with different agendas.

Disclosure: sold out today for a loss after buying just before Nifty CM announcement.

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you sold out and then tell the world MLX is probably worth $200mill yet the market cap is sub 60mill.

Sorry but LOL !!!

MLX Price at posting: 6.7¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 59.5¢		Change -0.030(4.80%)		Mkt cap ! $527.4M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
62.0¢	62.8¢	59.0¢	$1.780M	2.944M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	2750	59.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
60.0¢	7033	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	2750	0.595
5	339090	0.590
5	53550	0.585
8	110242	0.580
5	19000	0.575

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.600	7033	1
0.615	10000	1
0.625	111600	4
0.630	5000	1
0.635	303406	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 30/07/2025 (20 minute delay)

MLX (ASX) Chart

you sold out and then tell the world MLX is probably worth...

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you sold out and then tell the world MLX is probably worth...

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