This question is ok. The answer is really around what is your timeframe of investment is.
Clearly the key indicator is actually market capitalisation (MC) and right now SYA's MC is about A$700 million, and obviously its SP of 11.5c is influenced by its SOI. If SOI was lower SP would be higher is the point, so comparing SP of one company to another is not a good thing, you need to compare MC (i.e. comment not directe dat you but others).
Having said this SYA's MC is lower than a number of other lithium exploration plays around, i.e. LTR, PLL, VUL etc etc but higher than others, i.e. CXO, but this is the crux against many SYA may be further down the road than others (and if so well there is certainly growth prospects to growth in MC and therefore SP here). But the other part of the equation relates to what resource does it hold and what is the anticipated mining production level itself and whether it intends to further process the resource into say lithium hydroxide, or just sell spodumene concentrate at mining. Ultimately though it is about profit levels.
For avoidance of doubt, resource size in part doesn't matter at times. Illustration - you have a small resource but the market anticipates you will be in production in two years time, and SOI are in the ballpark of a larger player with a larger resource. Now if the market thinks that larger player won't be in production for say 10 years, the smaller company will have a much higher SP than the larger company today. Only have to look at PLL for that concept, when compared to some other exploration companies whose JORC is higher.
Valuations here by some of say $1 per share - i.e. MC > $5 billion - would be a longer term outlook, which bodes more with an entity in production. So much longer term and that longer term outlook in production does mean that you hit your DFS variables in production as well at some point and the market believing they will be hit when you are in production. Just have to look at PLS for that - it has about 3 billion SOI and a MC of over $6 billion, with the market saying it anticipates strong forward profits despite lack of profits when it started production.
Ultimately, current valuation is a function of what configuration the market sees SYA in production and from that what NPV is estimated. In production SP becomes a function of EPS and P/E ratios. It is pretty obvious when you do this exercise the market is assuming a higher configuration and NPV (through the acquisitions) than what SYA has previously published. That is the key here now - what is the likely configuration and production profile for SYA and the timeframe to production. I posted on this, and provided indicative valuations, in
Post #:55297938In a peer comparison thread I have gone through various projects etc and to be frank SYA's project is ok - certainly market appears to be coming to terms with an earlier entry to market than previously anticipated for it I suspect (hence the SP growth of late). F
or those interested in research here are some posts around lithium demand in that peer comparison thread).1 Understanding brines, spodumene, other deposit types, demand forecasts etc -Post #:525084252. Process flowsheets and comparisons to some deposits -Post #:542837273. The thread in which those posts come from has other data.
This article is also interesting: Why most analysts are overstating lithium supply forecasts (linkedin.com)
Clearly, to reiterate the market IMO is pricing in a different configuration to the previous studies (and by that I mean production profile itself and will be interesting what that becomes).
Also obvious too me @lithiumburn has a short term pricing outlook as well. He might get more credence on this thread if he talked about FA here like SYA's mining prospects, production prospects, entry to market. FA is teh basis here given the growth in lithium demand, so SYA's growth prospects are about taking its opportunities in this market of rising EV demand.
All IMO
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