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mypravda

2,932 Posts.

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20/05/22

07:45

Post #: 61513841
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Originally posted by JetJunkie: ↑

Why?
A very broad question that would take a very long post to answer in any meaningful depth - and I haven't been paid $275k to copy and paste a lot of information from other reports and provide my 100-page dissenting opinion. The free version is that my reading leads me to disagree with the expert opinion that it is a fair and reasonable offer. This is because I find Kroll's underlying assumptions flawed, its interpretation of data and comparative data misleading, and its forecasts under-baked to support its finding.

I encourage investors to read the report (if not the whole explanatory booklet, just ignore the board's spin) and form their own opinion. Many investors will not form or hold the same opinion as me, and I'm ok with that.

It may be an offer that meets the investment goals of other investors; but not mine. The offer does not meet the threshold for me to be interested in selling LFS a significant portion of future HUM consumer finance growth and cash flow. I would be disappointed if over 80% of HUM's future cash flow in this segment went to current LFS shareholders when it was the HUM shareholders who paid the price for that growth.

What are the alternatives?
A better offer - which is not realistic in the current situation. Retain the entire business within HUM - thus the no vote - so the company has time to execute against the existing growth strategy and drive the value back up before any future offer is entertained.

What are the risks?
I am making my decision based on the risk to capital and future returns as well as the potential reward for a particular course of action. There are risks to the sale going through and not going through. I partially agree with Kroll's position on SP risk - but I would posit that the HUM SP will fall irrespective of what happens with the sale; it will take time for the market to decide what the commercial-only business is worth (which could present a good buying opportunity), and it would take time for the market to re-price HUM without the offer on the table. I also see significant downside risk to the LFS SP. As a counterpoint to my own position, I consider AA taking control presents a real risk to the successful execution of HUM's growth strategy. There are lots of other risks either way.

What I would like to see?
A week before the final vote, I would like to see HUM release a financial update so investors can see and digest what the entry into the COVID-normal trading environment has meant for the consumer finance segment.

As for me: Either way, short of some external event, I will likely be holding my HUM and/or LFS shares. The consumer finance sector should boom over the next few years, just like it did in the recession we had to have. If the board (whichever one it is) effectively executes a growth strategy while managing bad-debt risk, this thing should be a money-printing machine.

DYOR

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yep no vote

HUM Price at posting: 70.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last 45.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $221.1M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.0¢	0.0¢	0.0¢	$0	0

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	435	45.0¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
44.5¢	434	1

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	391	0.450
4	88503	0.435
1	51282	0.430
4	75678	0.420
1	37600	0.415

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.450	24698	1
0.455	17400	2
0.460	33000	4
0.470	12000	2
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