2ic,
You have covered this exceptionally well and I have always questioned how a third party could get involved. When SFX management announced offtakes with no project equity component, I knew this was trouble.
As for Iluka.
You've made some really good points (for and against), but for me, I can't see them being interested. Building and commissioning the project would be a very big challenge and Iluka have their hands full with Sierra Rutile and Cataby. Would Iluka's board and management really want to take this on with such a chequered past with their shareholders money? The Sierra Rutile purchase hasn't gone to plan and needs a lot of work (and money).
I also think that Zircon pricing will start to flatten out around here, I don't think it will fall away though, but if companies aren't interested now, will they ever be? and what happens if zircon pricing turns? Iluka put JA on care and maintenance, but Thunderbird would have to keep operating. This goes to my point about revenue balance. I'm a really big believer in TiO2 and Zircon, but Zircon needs to be the byproduct. The Tio2 market is 8 times bigger and is much broader. I also think that 3D printing into the future will be enormous and will be very hungry for high end feed - softening any blow to pricing.
Pep
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