So going on the presentation and speeches posted on the ASX the company felt the 2017 crop was about 2k tonnes short of where it ought to have been at an EBIT of about $1.5m per 200 tonnes variation from the actual crop size of 14.1k tonnes.
So in other words the almond division, if 2017 was a good year, would have had $15m higher EBIT than they ended up with. So roughly double the actual EBIT achieved.
The 2018 crop is a bit of an unknown quantity due to a "good but disrupted bloom" and frost events affecting nearly half of SHV's orchards.
Current almond pricing is in the $7.50 to $8.00 range vs the $7.43 achieved for the 2017 crop with $0.10/kg movement in almond pricing roughly equivalent to a $1.4m movement in EBIT.
Looks like there is good scope for upwards movements in almond prices in the next 12 months with the 2017 US crop adversely impacted by insect damage, frost and drought impacting on the Spanish crop and the overall Australian 2018 crop expected to be equivalent to, or less than, the 2017 crop all impacting on the supply side whilst demand is running high and increasing.
No mention of any reduction in demand from India or any challenges with selling the remainder of the 2017 crop although I note that they now state that the 2017 crop is now fully sold or committed with forward sales of the 2018 having commenced.
SHV Price at posting:
$4.39 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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